While watching the NFL Draft this past weekend, I took note of one of the New England Patriots' late round picks. Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Unniversity of Nebraska was picked in the 7th round, pick 224.As a senior, he was 1st team all Big 12 and voted Defensive Back of the year. At the combine, he measured in at 5'10, 204, and ran a 4.55 in the 40 yard dash, along with posting a 37 inch vertical leap. Based on the numbers, I cannot find a reason why this athlete was not selected in one of the 1st 2 rounds of the draft. So, what is the NFL's formula for selecting players?
Dennard's case is not an anomaly, as many of the best college players did not hear their names called this past weekend. In Dennard's case, he supposedly fell in the draft due to character concerns, but didn't Janoris Jenkins get drafted in the second round? There is no true rhyme or reason to the way players are selected by the NFL. The only way that I can explain it is media hype. Media hype won RGIII the Heisman Trophy and drove him up draft boards. It also hurts people like Case Keenum and Kellen Moore. In an article by Yahoo! Sports, I read that Brok Osweiler, 6'7 242 2nd round pick by the Denver Broncos, threw for 5082 yards in his career at Arizona State, while Keenum, 6'0 208 undrafted, had two individual seasons at Houston where he threw for more than 5082 yards. However, it does not stop there. Players are being overlooked at every position. WR/KR Eric Page was a first team All-American in 2010-11, he went undrafted. Levy Adcock is a 6-6 322 pound left tackle that was 2-time All Big 12, nobody called his phone this weekend. Derrick Shelby is a 6-3 271 defensive end that was 1st team all Pac 12, he is now an undrafted free agent. JK Schaffer is a 6-1 232 outside linebacker that was 1st team all Big East, but he wasn't even invited to the NFL combine.
The productive players I could name are countless, but the ones that get drafted are picked based on their potential. College is seen by many outsiders as a feeder system to the NFL, but in all actuality, they are two very different entities. Many of the players that are successful in college will not be successful in the NFL, and some players that were not as productive in college (See: Tom Brady) will do better in the NFL. All men are wired differently. Some can't handle the college lifestyle, with studying and school work, others can't handle the grueling "13 month season" in the NFL. Some people are beneficiaries of college schemes, others work well in pro-style offenses. Some players take advantage of weak competition, others play their best against the most elite athletes in the world.
Predicting what someone will do when they take their game to the next level is a hard thing to do. Because of this, their are combines, pro days, and interviews. Teams are looking at game tape, injury reports, police reports, medical records, and intelligence tests to find out which players would be good fits for their team, and they still are wrong nearly half the time. Sometimes the scouts make mistakes: Tom Brady was drafted in the 6th round, pick 199, after Chad Pennington, Giovanni Carmazzi, Chris Redman, Tee Martin, Marc Bulger, and Spergon Wynn. Tim Couch, David Carr, and Jamarcus Russell were all drafted number 1 overall, and none of them threw more touchdowns than interceptions during their NFL careers.
Bottom Line: An NFL Scouts' judgment may not seem to have any sort of viable logic to it, but that is only because they are forever adapting to the changing nature of the league.
Dennard's case is not an anomaly, as many of the best college players did not hear their names called this past weekend. In Dennard's case, he supposedly fell in the draft due to character concerns, but didn't Janoris Jenkins get drafted in the second round? There is no true rhyme or reason to the way players are selected by the NFL. The only way that I can explain it is media hype. Media hype won RGIII the Heisman Trophy and drove him up draft boards. It also hurts people like Case Keenum and Kellen Moore. In an article by Yahoo! Sports, I read that Brok Osweiler, 6'7 242 2nd round pick by the Denver Broncos, threw for 5082 yards in his career at Arizona State, while Keenum, 6'0 208 undrafted, had two individual seasons at Houston where he threw for more than 5082 yards. However, it does not stop there. Players are being overlooked at every position. WR/KR Eric Page was a first team All-American in 2010-11, he went undrafted. Levy Adcock is a 6-6 322 pound left tackle that was 2-time All Big 12, nobody called his phone this weekend. Derrick Shelby is a 6-3 271 defensive end that was 1st team all Pac 12, he is now an undrafted free agent. JK Schaffer is a 6-1 232 outside linebacker that was 1st team all Big East, but he wasn't even invited to the NFL combine.
The productive players I could name are countless, but the ones that get drafted are picked based on their potential. College is seen by many outsiders as a feeder system to the NFL, but in all actuality, they are two very different entities. Many of the players that are successful in college will not be successful in the NFL, and some players that were not as productive in college (See: Tom Brady) will do better in the NFL. All men are wired differently. Some can't handle the college lifestyle, with studying and school work, others can't handle the grueling "13 month season" in the NFL. Some people are beneficiaries of college schemes, others work well in pro-style offenses. Some players take advantage of weak competition, others play their best against the most elite athletes in the world.
Predicting what someone will do when they take their game to the next level is a hard thing to do. Because of this, their are combines, pro days, and interviews. Teams are looking at game tape, injury reports, police reports, medical records, and intelligence tests to find out which players would be good fits for their team, and they still are wrong nearly half the time. Sometimes the scouts make mistakes: Tom Brady was drafted in the 6th round, pick 199, after Chad Pennington, Giovanni Carmazzi, Chris Redman, Tee Martin, Marc Bulger, and Spergon Wynn. Tim Couch, David Carr, and Jamarcus Russell were all drafted number 1 overall, and none of them threw more touchdowns than interceptions during their NFL careers.
Bottom Line: An NFL Scouts' judgment may not seem to have any sort of viable logic to it, but that is only because they are forever adapting to the changing nature of the league.
Regarding this past draft I have to agree that there is no rhyme or reason. I'm still trying to wrap my head around Brok Osweiler, out of Arizona State being drafted in the second round by the Broncos over Kirk Cousins from Michigan State. Cousins would have had the opportunity to learn under two of the best quarterbacks ever in Manning and Elway had better career stats, played in more games to prove himself worthy and is already considered pro ready by many. No way is Osweiler a better quarterback or leader in my opinion. Of course only time will tell.- GLOBE&@
ReplyDeleteAmen to that. Osweiler is a big guy though, and lately that route has been pretty successful. Guys like Roethlisberger & Flacco are proving bigger can be better.
DeleteDennard didn't fall in the draft because of production or measureables, he fell so far because a week before the draft he intentionally or accidentally punched a cop in the face. Either way, very bad move. Combine that with his last game against South Carolina in which he got thrown out for fighting with Alshon Jeffrey and laying an egg in Senior Bowl practices before leaving with an injury, and it is no wonder that he fell so far. He sabotaged himself, much the same way that Burfict did to himself. In today's NFL character is as important, if not more so, than ability and potential.
ReplyDeleteThe things Dennard did were no worse than what Janoris Jenkins did. Burfict's laziness caused him to fall down, and he's deserving of it.
DeleteCase Keenum and Kellen Moore had fantastic college careers; unfortunately, their lack of prototypical NFL QB size and their apparent inability to make the throws required of an NFL QB is what cost them in this years draft.
ReplyDeleteI can understand Kellen Moore, but Case Keenum is no smaller than Drew Brees.
DeleteDo you think Brandon Weeden was overrated (since he was throwing to Justin Blackmon) or underrated (because of his age). I heard that he has good arm strength and accuracy but poor mobility. Also that his skills may not transfer to the NFL (not sure if I believe that or not). What are your thoughts?
ReplyDeletePersonally, I believe that Weeden was underrated, because his successes are far & away better than those of Tannehill. A radio personality put things like this: Coaches sign contracts for 3-4 years, so why not take a player with a 7 year shelf life? If Brett Favre can have his best QB Rating as a professional at age 40, Brandon Weeden has nothing to worry about as far as age is concerned.
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